BRICS, Velo de la Novia and the Indus Waters Treaty
Off The World Magazine #362
Middle East: Iran, the United States, and the ISIS attack in Syria
Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have criticised U.S. intervention in Iran. These statements indicate a noticeable shift in the attitudes of Arab states towards the actions taken by the U.S. administration regarding Iran. This change reflects a reorganisation of regional policy, driven by a growing rapprochement between the Gulf states and Iran, as well as an assessment that Israel poses a greater threat to the stability of the Middle East than Iran does.
How will Iran respond to U.S. attacks? Experts suggest that the United States may face asymmetric warfare, in which Iran employs a network of agents, proxies, foreign criminal organisations, and cyber activities. This form of conflict is harder to target than conventional military operations. Iran is well-equipped for asymmetric warfare, which occurs between entities with different conventional military capabilities, typically operating below the threshold of conventional warfare.
In Damascus, the Islamic State conducted its first operation in Syria since the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in December of last year and the subsequent establishment of an Islamist-led government. A suicide attack on the Orthodox Church of St. Elijah resulted in multiple casualties. Since coming to power, the new Syrian government, composed of former leaders from the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has launched airstrikes against the Islamic State, which has criticised Syria's new diplomatic relations and opening with the United States, among other issues.
Indus Waters Treaty and the Thai-Cambodian Crisis
According to the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India will not resume its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, and water flows from this area will be redirected for domestic use. Following the attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir in April this year, India "suspended" its involvement in the 1960 treaty that governs the use of the Indus River system. This treaty ensured that 80% of Pakistani farms had access to water from rivers originating in India. Additionally, a Pakistani analyst has stated that the strategically important Nur Khan airbase near Islamabad is effectively under American operational control. After India attacked the base in early May this year as part of Operation Sindur, American diplomacy intervened in the Pakistani-Indian talks to prevent the conflict from escalating. Bases like Nur Khan serve as forward operating locations for the U.S. in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions.
Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated further after a Cambodian soldier was killed in a gunfight along the border with Thailand. In response, Cambodia announced a halt to Thai fuel imports and urged its citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Thailand. For over 100 years, the two countries have disputed various points along the 817-kilometre land border, initially established by France when it colonised Cambodia in 1907. Moreover, the leak of a telephone conversation between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, who still holds significant influence in Cambodia, has sparked a political crisis in Thailand. The Thai government is now on the brink of collapse following the departure of a key coalition partner.
Nature Conservation: Velo de la Novia, Raja Ampat, and Isla Arena
Peruvian authorities have designated two nature conservation areas. The first, Velo de la Novia, is located in the Ucayali region and encompasses 15,000 hectares of Amazonian rainforest. The second area, the Medio Putumayo-Algodón Regional Nature Conservation Area in northern Peru, covers 283,000 hectares of floodplains, swamps, and forests. This conservation area strengthens the territorial rights and access to natural resources for 16 local indigenous communities. For years, illegal logging and mining have threatened the unique biodiversity of the region, which includes endangered species such as the Amazonian arborvitae, Amazonian elephants, and cottontails, as well as the livelihoods of the indigenous people who protect it.
In Indonesia, the government has revoked nickel mining permits for four companies operating in the Raja Ampat archipelago, part of the Coral Triangle—one of the most biologically diverse marine ecosystems on Earth. The government cited environmental violations and supported environmentalists' concerns that the mining operations posed a serious threat to coral reefs and marine life in the region.
In the Mexican Yucatán, the construction of a road linking the mainland to the fishing village of Isla Arena disrupted the mangrove forest, obstructing the flow of water from underground rivers to parts of the ecosystem. This disruption led to the decline of the forest and a decrease in fish and wildlife populations. However, the local community took action to restore water flow and the mangrove ecosystem by hand-digging tidal channels in deep water. So far, nine kilometres of channels have been opened, allowing flamingos and other wildlife to return to the previously degraded forest.
Economy: BRICS, Banks and Vietnam
Former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, as the head of the BRICS New Development Bank, is promoting an alternative to Western and dollar dominance. She emphasises local currency lending, infrastructure development, and sustainable growth. Under her leadership, the bank provided billions in aid to Brazil following a natural disaster and reinforced its partnership with China. Despite facing criticism for its close ties to Beijing, Rousseff has solidified the bank’s role as a tool for establishing a new financial order. In 2025, she was unanimously re-elected for a second term.
Vietnam has officially been accepted as a BRICS "partner country," as announced by the Brazilian government, which will chair the group in 2025. This status allows Vietnam to participate in BRICS summits and discussions. It is the tenth country to receive such recognition, and its involvement aligns with BRICS goals. Founded in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the group has since expanded to include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE, serving as a counterbalance to Western influence.
Global capital is increasingly shifting towards emerging markets in Asia, which offer resilience, scale, and policy transparency. Investors are valuing past decisions made by central banks in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as attractive market valuations. The rise of India, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan demonstrates growing investor confidence in these regions. Asia is becoming a key destination for investment, gaining traction amidst the economic volatility experienced in developed countries.
Digital News Report 2025: Key findings
The Digital News Report 2025 indicates a decline in trust for traditional media and highlights the increasing influence of social media and influencers in delivering information, particularly to younger audiences. Video content and podcasts are becoming more popular, while AI is emerging as a new source of news, raising concerns about quality and credibility. Data from 20 wealthy countries reveals that interest in paid online content is still low at 18%, and trust in the media remains stagnant at 40%. The rise in disinformation is causing widespread concern, especially in the United States and Africa.
According to a report from the Reuters Institute, most Americans are now getting their news from social media. 54% use platforms like Facebook, YouTube, or TikTok, compared to 50% who turn to television and 48% who prefer websites. This shift is particularly evident among younger users. Influencers, such as Joe Rogan, who is followed by over 20% of respondents, play a significant role in shaping opinions.
In Israel, new restrictions have been imposed on media reporting regarding the conflict with Iran. The military censor has prohibited the publication of specifics about Iranian strikes, attack locations, defence actions, or social media footage without prior approval. Additionally, filming targets and using drones have also been banned. Historically, Israeli law has restricted security-related coverage. According to Reporters Without Borders, Israel ranks 112th in the world for press freedom, falling behind countries like Haiti and South Sudan.
China’s Military and Economic Activity: Current Developments
Electric vehicles (EVs) have become widespread in China, thanks to a long-term government strategy, substantial subsidies, and robust infrastructure. Since 2009, the Chinese government has invested more than $230 billion to support manufacturers, consumers, and the development of charging networks. Companies like BYD and XPeng provide modern, affordable cars, often equipped with advanced features. For many Chinese consumers, EVs represent a cost-saving option rather than a luxury. Despite concerns raised by Western nations regarding security, China is at the forefront of the automotive transformation.
In the military sector, China is promoting the J-35A fighter jet as an alternative to the F-35 for countries that are excluded from purchasing American defence equipment, such as Saudi Arabia. The J-35A was showcased abroad for the first time at the Paris Air Show in 2025 and aims to attract customers from the Middle East and Asia. Offered to countries like Pakistan, it is part of China's broader strategy for military expansion. The Saudis, frustrated by U.S. restrictions and concerns over technological security, may view the Chinese aircraft as a tool for balancing the influences of the U.S. and China.
The United States has overlooked its reliance on China for rare earth elements for decades, ignoring warnings and previous crises. These elements play a crucial role in modern technology, but their processing is challenging and largely dominated by China, which has maintained its lead in the sector through advanced technology and education.
Living building, Green Cement, and Fireproof Houses
Scientists at ETH Zurich have developed a new building material: a 3D-printable living gel. This photosynthetic material contains cyanobacteria, which not only remove carbon dioxide from the air but also use sunlight to produce biomass. Additionally, the bacteria trigger the formation of minerals that stabilise carbon in a solid form. The hydrogels created by the Swiss researchers have already been applied in architecture, with living installations showcased in Venice and Milan, combining design, sustainability, and life sciences.
Using AI and computer modelling, experts from the Swiss Paul Scherrer Institute have discovered a way to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of cement production by redesigning its recipe. Their system simulates thousands of ingredient combinations, identifying those that create strong cement while emitting considerably less carbon dioxide. In their model, the scientists concentrated on replacing some of the clinker with alternative cement materials.
In New South Wales, Australia, Klaus Carson Studio has designed the Ironbark House, a highly resilient home specifically engineered to withstand bushfires. A key design feature is the use of corrugated zincalume-coated steel panels. The house consists of two barn-like volumes and a garage, each strategically positioned and oriented to comply with bushfire guidelines and to create safe boundaries between the building and the surrounding vegetation.
AI, Work, and Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Connection
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the job market, with nearly half of current jobs at risk of disappearing within the next 20 years. Researchers from the University of Georgia studied AI strategies across 50 countries to assess how they are preparing their citizens for these changes. Only 13 countries, mainly in Europe, have prioritised AI education and training. The United States ranks in the middle of the pack. Countries like Germany and Spain promote AI education starting from early childhood. While most strategies emphasise teaching technical skills, few focus on developing soft skills such as creativity and collaboration.
Research from the Universities of Geneva and Bern indicates that artificial intelligence can surpass humans in emotional intelligence (EI) assessments. Six AI models, including ChatGPT, achieved an average score of 82% correct on EI tests, compared to only 56% for humans. Moreover, AI was able to create new and reliable tests in record time. This suggests that generative language models understand emotions well and can offer suitable responses in challenging situations, opening the door for applications in education, coaching, and conflict resolution, among others.
Scientists from Finland and France have developed a new light-based computing system that has the potential to replace traditional electronics in AI applications. By using ultrashort laser pulses in thin optical fibres, they have achieved data processing speeds thousands of times faster than those of conventional computers. The system demonstrated 91% accuracy in recognising images in less than a picosecond. The key to this advancement lies in the precise encoding of light and its interaction with the optical fibre. This research paves the way for the next generation of energy-efficient, ultrafast AI systems.